Like Oscar and Olympics, one can consider the US presidential election as one of the greatest shows on earth- whether in terms of media coverage or the sheer number of audience.
If you are itching to bet on the presidential election, then grasping the difference between polling and prediction market is imperative.
For a sentimental bettor with an ear for exclusive conclusions, the former choice can be perfect, though the outcome is quite debatable.
On the other hand, a prediction market is enjoying a strong base of loyalists for some time now. Too confused about which one to believe?
The following points will show you about the reliability and follies of both the mediums. Running through them will definitely make it easier for you to select-
Future Trading is Similar to Sports Bet
For a first time political gambler looking forward to bet on the presidential election, nothing screams more comfortable than a similar setting like sports betting.
With the modern technology advent in political betting, you will get to play from the comfort of your home. Furthermore, if you have put your wager on soccer/golf/horse racing before, then you will find many similarities between these two processes.
Top notch sites like Skybet or Oddschecker will provide you with a virtual platform where you will find live chat rooms consisting of other bettors and guess what? The majority of them are relying upon future trading rather than polling.
While polling smells of classism, prediction market consists of people like you and I. Hard working folks who are interested in politics and willing to go that extra mile by betting a wager upon the favorite presidential candidate, should relate to predicting market more, as it’s full of mass wisdom.
In the latter points, we have discussed that, how future trading takes into account surveys and information from all the quarters of society.
If you have traded in the money exchange market, then you won’t find it too difficult to understand the future trading phenomenon in political gambling.
From Which Will You Get a Greater Coverage?
There is no denying the fact that polling is more intellectually nourishing. The socio-political commentators, who sit on the panel of the news channel and air their opinions about who will win the election, are highly educated class.
But at this juncture lays the biggest failing of polling too. Here you will only get to see and hear the views of wise pollsters who are a handful in number.
On the other hand, future trading in presidential election takes into account a wide array of angles. From fundraising campaigns to insiders’ scoops that are not within reach of general public’s consumption- future trading market counts on all of them.
Also, the market economy is the main force behind future trading. Those who are investing their money here are quite desperate for the oddsпм to win in their favor.
So, one can expect that a collective pool of research, analysis and the information is there to back the prediction market.
Do you know that in the UK, the bettors don’t need to pay tax on their gambling amounts? Also, much of these nuggets of information can be obtained from the internet.
So in a way, future trading is quite economical a process in comparison to polling- thus generating much more coverage.
But Be Aware of Vices of Future Trading
If you think that future trading is all good and true; then think again. The recent ‘Brexit’ phenomenon had taught the avid followers of prediction market a bitter lesson.
While the exit polls showed a strong favor towards the majority’s willingness to exit from EU, the prediction market opined the opposite.
Result? The future trading market fell flat on its face. If we go back in the year of 2010, then also we can see that the prediction market underpriced the overall majority of liberal democrats.
So it’s always advisable to not putting your entire stake on upcoming US presidential election. One may say that on the strength of the prediction market lays its failure too.
Too many surveys get involved here - producing much noise and more-than-necessary information. Also, political biases can play a heavy role in future trading-thus leading to contradictory survey results.
A quick Google search will present to you a plethora of scholarly articles and links where the future of prediction market in political gambling is being discussed pretty widely.
And do you know what the common conclusion is? It has its vices that may lead to the early decline of future trading. If you think that you can’t adjust with such an ambiguous system while betting; then move on to the next option.
Don’t Take Anything at Face Value
As you are planning to gamble your money upon presidential election, you should take every bit of news the popular media feeds you, with a pinch of salt. Read about the mechanism of the presidential election as much as you can.
Assess yourself whether you are a risk-averse gambler or a daring one? If the answer is the first one, then look up for what it means to bet straight in a political election. On the other hand, having a flat bankroll can allow you to wager on money line bet.
Predict it, and Predict Wise are two erudite virtual platforms where you will find a vast gamut of news regarding political prediction.
Subscribing the membership of library and borrowing books on politics from there, exchanging ideas in various online forums with fellow political bettors, will invariably increase your knowledge.
But in order to become a conscious political gambler, don’t ignore the power of reading the daily newspaper and watch channels like CNN.
When you equip yourself with the knowledge of how presidential election in the USA plays out, you shall feel much more confident of while betting- irrespective of your faith in future trading or polling.
As of now, the wind is blowing strong for future trading. Though Brexit put a dent in the reputation of prediction market being a full-proof betting system, still there are many elements going in favor of it. But as a rookie gambler, it’s your duty to educate yourself enough before taking the leap.