Ladbrokes Political Betting

Odds on The Next Prime Minister (UK)

After the exit of the UK from the European Union in the controversial Bretix vote, it is now becoming evident that Theresa Mary is the firm favourite to replace the outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron as the Prime Minister and Conservative Party Leader after she secured the nomination for the ballot alongside Andrea Leadsom.

In fact, odds on the next prime minister UK across various bookmakers highly suggest that she is going to win.
Theresa May received garnered half of the first round votes as well as the nominations of former arch rivals Stephen Crabb and Liam Fox and built on the lead with an additional 199 votes in the final ballot.

Mrs Andrea Leadsom garnered around 84 votes, almost twice those of Michael Gove, who was eliminated from the 2nd round of the contest. 


Who is going to win over the membership?


A recent poll of the Troy members – the people responsible for making the decision on who is going to be the next leader once the initial stage of shortlisting the two people has been decided by the MPs – indicated that the Home Secretary was ahead of Andrea Leadsom by a margin of 32 points, and slightly more than 50% ahead of Michael Gove. Michael Gove also trailed Mrs Leadsom by 33 points.


Who remains popular among the rest of the population?


According to a poll conducted among the general population after Boris Johnson ruled himself out of the race to succeed David Cameron, Theresa May still held the needed head start among the people, an indication that she is most likely going to do well in the general election.

When the general population was asked which Tory they thought would be the best replacement for David Cameron, 43% of the general public said they would back Theresa May. A mere 8% backed May’s closest rivals, Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove.

Before pulling out of the race, Boris Johnson was fairing much better than the remaining two rivals, but since his choice to step out of the race, Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom has become the second best according to the odds on the next prime minister, while Boris’s political assassin Gove, dragging on in third place.


Who are the other contenders?


Despite the odds on next prime minister highly suggesting that May is the most probable next PM, it is going to be a hotly contested race with various contenders. One of the race contenders, who also has very high odds for next Prime Minister is Andrea Leadsom.

Andrea Leadsom, a firm Brexiteer and the Energy Secretary, will take Theresa May in a head-on competition which will be decided by the Troy Party members, on a date set before September.

Andrea has controversy during her earlier stages of the campaign when the Times investigated and found what she claimed to have experience in the past was rather slightly exaggerated.

In a separate poll conducted among the people of the UK aimed at determining the odds on next prime minister UK, it was discovered that Tory voters prefer May. The best-priced odds for next prime minister UK candidate extends her lead among most of the Conservative voters, leading the Gove by a margin of 52% to 15%.

Remarkably, Andrea Leadsom emerged last in the Tory voters poll, even after enjoying good support from both the Tory members and the MPs on the Eurosceptic right of the party as Penny Mordaunt, Nadine Dorries, and Ian Duncan Smith.


Who do the MPs seem to back?


Under the same vote to determine odds on the next prime minister, Theresa May also had a strong lead amongst the 330 MPs. Slightly more than half of the number backed May in the 1st round of voting, with David Cameron abstaining. She also built upon the backing with a total of 199 votes in her 2nd round.  

Among those who backed her and made clear of their intentions include influential frontbenchers such as Defense Secretary, Foreign Secretary, the Health Secretary and her former leadership competitors Stephen Crabb and Liam Fox.

Andrea Leadsome was placed second and was boosted by the support of Boris Johnson according to the polls used to determine the odds for next prime minister UK.


Majority of the Brexiteers preferred Boris, but won’t mind May


The European Union will be the focal point for Theresa May’s campaign – with the dividing factor being the population that voted to back out of the European Union and those who backed to remain in the European Union.

According to the poll carried out to determine the odds on next prime minister, it was evident that it could also play a very critical role in separating Leadsome from May.

With only 4% of the remaining Tory members backing Leadsome, it was indicated that only two Tory brextieers would support May, whose indifferent stance on the Bretix referendum managed to make her the party unifier.

The race for the conservative leadership began right after David Cameron announced that he was resigning as the British PM in the wake of the EU referendum result, popularly known as the Bretix vote.

A staunch advocate for the EU, Cameron said that he was not the right person for the office given that the people of England had made the choice of exiting from the European Union.

He said that the suitable successor should be ready to take the office by the time that the annual conference for the Conservative, which is scheduled to take place in October. This timescale has however been accelerated to early September by the 1922 committee.

Ms Theresa May was on the same side as the outgoing PM, though she is expected to oversee the smooth exit of UK from the European block. If all goes well, she is expected to become the second woman that Britain will have since Margaret Thatcher’s time in the late 80’s.

However, she holds the record of the longest serving Home Secretary, having occupied the office since the late 19th century.


Bet on Politics